Much thinking is a form of planning, relying heavily on “if” and “then.” We sometimes feel comforted by the apparent validity of our reasoning.
But when what seemed to be an if/then situation turns out not to be one (i.e. we were wrong), or when the real world’s imagination exceeds what ours was when we listed the ifs to consider, we are reminded of our limitations.
Even when we try to include a catchall or backup if (such as “If I’m wrong, then …”), we will frequently be surprised.